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Prices for RAM and flash memory began to decline again. The situation will last until the first quarter of 2021
The pandemic and the resulting quarantine and remote work for the entire first half of 2021 pushed the prices of DRAM and NAND memory up. In the second half of the year, there was a rollback from the conquered price positions. Overstocking of warehouses, stick in wheels Huawei and uncertainty in the economy led to a halt in the growth of the average selling price of memory. Analysts believe that this situation will last until the end of the first quarter of 2021, which gives time for a leisurely upgrade.
TrendForce Expects Q3 DRAM and NAND Oversupply to Spread to Q4 and Beyond. On the one hand, competitors of Huawei, which has come under new US sanctions, are increasing their purchases of memory in order to capture its market shares, but this “impulse” will not be enough, we are confident in TrendForce, in order to hike memory prices in the foreseeable future. Also, prices will tend to go down, since the server segment does not show a recovery in demand. Thus, experts conclude that in the period from October to December inclusive, the average selling price of memory will consistently decrease by 10%.
Sluggish server market will be the biggest driver of DRAM price cuts. For the fourth quarter, this sector will push the average selling price of memory by 15% down. The decrease in the average selling price of mobile DRAM is expected to be less – up to 5%. The advance (even before the sanctions began) purchases of memory by Huawei, which literally raked out all the stocks from manufacturers, so the rest of the manufacturers will be purchased now. Thus, prices for 32 GB modules are expected to reach $ 100-110 by the end of the year, which will be close to the previous minimum.
As for NAND flash, overproduction is more evident in this sector than in DRAM. So, already at the level of wafers with chips, the average selling price is expected to decrease by as much as 20%. The average selling price of corporate SSD promises to decrease (this is all in the fourth quarter of this year) by 10-15%. EMMC and UFS modules will fall in price not so much – by 3-7%, because Chinese smartphone manufacturers are going to stamp devices to replace Huawei devices at an enviable pace. In the first quarter of the new year, the decline in NAND prices will accelerate even more, although DRAM prices may slow down or fall by up to 5%.