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Analysts don’t believe AMD will buy Xilinx
10.10.2021 [06:47],
Alexey Razin

The final gain in the share price of Xilinx on yesterday’s rumors of interest in the company from AMD was limited to 14%, although before the opening of trading it reached 17%. Many industry experts have expressed doubts that the deal is worthwhile at the moment – at least considering AMD’s own experience in buying ATI, or with an eye on the deal between Intel and Altera.

Image source: Bloomberg

In 2021, Intel laid out almost $ 17 billion for Altera assets. Citigroup experts admit that in material terms, this deal has not yet brought Intel any significant return. Technically, the integration of the companies was brought to its logical conclusion: some of the specialized Intel Xeon processors began to be equipped with programmable matrices, but the latter were fixed on the TSMC pipeline, and not on Intel’s own.

According to Citigroup representatives, the deal between AMD and Xilinx in the long term could provide the first with an operating margin of more than 20% and about 5-6% of revenue growth, but it is difficult to count on a strong synergy effect in this case. AMD stock price dropped 3.94% in yesterday’s trading.

In 2021, AMD acquired the graphics developer ATI Technologies, paying more than $ 5 billion for its assets. The debt burden then undermined AMD’s ability to make profits for many years, analysts say, so in the case of a likely Xilinx deal, the company should not repeat the mistakes of the past decade.

In order to pay at least $ 30 billion for Xilinx assets, AMD will still have to exchange part of its shares; in the form of cash, it can raise no more than $ 10 billion for the deal. The CFO of the company has repeatedly noted that now for her to reduce the debt burden is one of the priority tasks, and so far she has succeeded in this area. AMD spends about a fifth of its revenue on research and development – last year this amount reached $ 1.7 billion, and any debt burden risks reducing R&D costs, and they are now an important factor in developing success in the confrontation with Intel and NVIDIA.

Analysts also mention that Xilinx has no inclination to sell the company’s assets. According to rumors, Qualcomm approached Xilinx with a similar offer several years ago, but it was rejected. Xilinx dominates a small but lucrative market with no clear prospects for dramatic expansion. Any business growth may well be provided at the expense of its own resources. Susquehanna says Qualcomm and Broadcom may be interested in buying Xilinx, so the outcome of the negotiations is not so obvious for AMD. So far, no comments have been received from AMD on this topic, and Xilinx representatives declined to comment on rumors.

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